Recession? No Recession? It's Anyone's Guess, Even The Federal Reserve

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According to the latest Atlanta Fed GDP models, they are now projecting above forecast economic growth as we move through the year.

LCM Capital Management would be remiss in our duties if we did not go down memory lane and remind everyone of a few things.

  • June 2021- Fed Chair Jerome Powell said "the surge in inflation is transitory"
  • At the Fed Reserve board October 2021 meeting Fed officials projected they may raise interest rates as soon as 2023, perhaps a year earlier than anticipated. You read that correctly, they originally projected 2024 as their first-rate hike.
  • Last but not least, Fed Chair Powell finally caved and said, "we now understand better how little we understand about inflation"
Just to remind everyone, the Federal Reserve is made up of 400+ PhD economists and clearly as quoted above, if they cannot predict correctly what will happen with every single economic number at their fingertips, why do you think this time will be any different? Don't be fooled. Your advisor/brokerage firm and their strategists or economists have no idea either. Full disclosure- nor do we but I am not arrogant enough to think that I do.

Wall Street had no idea the stock market would be up as much as it is in 2023. Despite not actually knowing what will happen next, our industry loves to tell people this is what will happen next and this is what you should own as a result.

Our suggestion, stay diversified. Don't try to guess what will happen in the short-term. It's a fool's game that Wall St wants you to play, where the house always wins and investors usually lose.

Consider SPY (SPDR S&P 500) (NYSE: SPY) for long-term for instant equity diversification and if you believe, like we do, that we are nearer the top of interest rates vs the bottom and you do not have enough money to buy individual bonds, then consider TLT (I-Shares 20+ year Treasury Bond ETF) (NYSE: TLT). If and when interest rates drop, and they will eventually, this should appreciate quite nicely over the next several years and you get paid over 3% while you wait for that to happen.