There are a variety of historical and recent trends that are supportive of the notion that Republicans will retake control of the House and Senate in the upcoming midterm elections.

The country has been trending towards becoming more Republican since 2010 with a brief interruption in 2018. Of course, the major reason that Democrats were able to take control of the House of Representatives, is the same reason that Republicans will take back control of the House in 2022.

This is the fact that the incumbent President's party tends to suffer big losses in the first mid-term elections due to a motivated opposition and the inevitable disappointment among some supporters of the President which depresses turnout. And, this trend is even more exaggerated this year as factors like inflation and a weakening economy have resulted in abysmal ratings for President Joe Biden.

However, there is some hope for Democrats as their chances of retaining control of the Senate have increased from 'slim' to 'possible'. One factor is the Roe v. Wade decision which is an issue that could energize independent and suburban voters who provided the margin of difference in 2018 and 2020, especially in 'purple' states like Colorado, Pennsylvania, and Georgia.

The other factor is that Republican voters have chosen some of the more extreme or eccentric candidates in primaries. In part, it's due to former President Donald Trump and the loyalty he still commands in the party. This includes Dr. Oz in Pennsylvania who is now probably the underdog to Lieutenant Governor Jon Fetterman and would probably have been more competitive with the moderate Republican candidate, David McCormick.

There are similar races in Georgia, where President Trump supported Herschel Walker, who is now facing his own set of controversies. In Arizona, Trump is backing Blake Masters, who also has his own online writings that could alienate moderates.

The final factor might be the ongoing hearings about the January 6 events which continue to paint former President Trump and his actions in an unflattering light. This could prove to be baggage for many of the nominees who earned his endorsement by repeating his statements about that day and the election.