We have recently written about how Donald Trump's attitude towards NATO might look during his presidency. However, an equally important, if not more important, question is: what will US - Russia relations look like in the near future?
Before leaving the White House Former President Barack Obama ordered the extension of sanctions against Russia for another year. The reason is the same as before: the annexation of Crimea by the Russian Federation.
However, this wasn't the only action by the former president aimed at Russia. After the reports that Russian hackers tried to interfere in the US presidential election, Obama ordered the expulsion of 35 Russian diplomats. This decision met with a positive response from the American people, including some members of the Republican Party (like John McCain, who's known for his strong stance against Russia).
President Trump, maintaining his campaign rhetoric, downplays the US intelligence report regarding the hackers' attack and their attempts to affect the November elections. He argues that there is no evidence and accused the media of publishing false information.
However, Obama affected the future relations of Trump with Russia. Donald Trump has repeatedly implied that he would like to improve the US relations with Russia. He deplored the constant clashes with Putin and he many times talked about how much he admires him, that he would "got along" well with him and he even stated that Vladimir Putin is a better leader that Barack Obama. It's an open secret that Russia strongly preferred Trump to become the 45th President of the United States and not Hillary Clinton, who the majority of Russians hate.
The key factor influencing the US - Russia relations after the change of administration may be the new cabinet. President Trump has chosen quite a variety of advisors when it comes to their views on cooperation with Russia.
Trump's cabinet includes people who favor a softer approach towards Russia, such as the Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson, the former CEO of ExxonMobil (NASDAQ: XON). Controversially, he's friends with Vladimir Putin, who in 2013 even awarded him the Order of Friendship. Therefore it is not surprising that Tillerson opposed the sanctions against Russia and is ready to work with Moscow.
There is however one man who can oppose the improvement of the USA relations with Russia. And that is James Mattis - current US Secretary of Defense - who's known as a controversial figure. His explosiveness and prowess gave him a pseudonym "Mad Dog." Mattis, who served in the armed forces for 44 years, leading troops in Afghanistan and Iraq, represents a different view on Trump's relations with Vladimir Putin. He criticized the lack of decisiveness of Barack Obama regarding, e.g., the annexation of Crimea by Russia and thinks that Putin aims to destroy NATO. So you can see that the members of Trump's cabinet have very different opinion when it come to Russia.
So what can you expect from Donald Trump in the context of the US - Russia relations? He will sure try to establish a dialogue with Vladimir Putin, possibly trying to "reset" current relations. However, it is worth remembering that the last such attempt carried out in 2009 mainly by Barack Obama and then Secretary of State Hillary Clinton didn't end with a long-term success and soon the US and Russia again drifted apart significantly. We'll see how the situation will unfold this year.