Nvidia Corp.'s
But concerns about exactly those capabilities sent shares lower in recent days, as the U.S. Commerce Department reportedly is pondering fresh constraints on chip exports to China. Nvidia shares are trading lower for the second week in a row. Since rallying to an all-time high of $439.90 on June 20, the stock is down 6.5%, closing at $411.17 on June 28. Restrictions on AI chips already exist, as U.S. regulators require licensing and disclosures for companies selling the most advanced AI semiconductors to China-based customers. However, new regulations would cover Nvidia's A800 line of chips, which were specifically designed with fewer capabilities to meet U.S. requirements for selling to China.
New Rules Designed To Rein In Chipmakers?
Some analysts believe the latest round of potential constraints may be intended to quell chipmakers' efforts to sidestep previous regulations.
According to a Wall Street Journal report, some U.S. officials are fretting that U.S.-designed chips could be used for nefarious purposes, including spreading disinformation or worse, such as the development of autonomous weapons, so-called "killer robots." Former Alphabet Inc.
Creating Hurdles For China
However, some analysts believe more restrictions on the export of AI-capable chips would create much-needed obstacles for China, which is trying to match the rapid advancements made by American techs like Google and OpenAI, which counts Microsoft Corp.
In a recent note to clients, stock analyst Angelo Zino said Nvidia, along with fellow chipmakers Broadcom Inc.
Broadcom Forecasts Above Analysts' Views
In its most recent earnings report on June 1, Broadcom forecast third-quarter revenue above Wall Street estimates, saying it will benefit from corporate spending on AI technologies.
For its part, AMD recently showcased its next-generation data center and AI chips. AMD is further behind market leader Nvidia when it comes to releasing AI semiconductors, but analysts are optimistic, expecting the company to see the fruits of those efforts in 2024, when earnings are seen increasing by 57%. As for Marvell, in its quarterly earnings release on May 25, CEO Matt Murphy said, "AI has emerged as a key growth driver for Marvell." He added, "While we are still in the early stages of our AI ramp, we are forecasting our AI revenue in fiscal 2024 to at least double from the prior year and continue to grow rapidly in the coming years."
Chip Stocks Trading Above 50-Day Averages
Although all of the "four horsemen" are trading below recent highs, all are getting support at or well above their 50-day moving averages, indicating that institutional investors are likely taking some profits after run-ups rather than panic selling.
In other words, it doesn't seem to be the case that big investors are suddenly quaking in their boots that new restrictions will put a serious dent in chipmakers' AI revenue.
In fact, the current pullback in these stocks could be presenting a classic "buy the dip" opportunity as long as they continue seeing strong moving-average support.