Russia and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries are at odds over the latter's reluctance over a proposal calling for production cuts in response to decreasing global demand.
OPEC+ has been considering an emergency meeting to discuss further production cuts as economic slowdown stemming from the Wuhan Coronavirus continues to wreak havoc on the energy market. In December, the organization, along with allies such as Russia, agreed to production cuts to try and control declining oil prices and the supply glut currently saturating the market. Russia was slow to accept the proposal. A recent three-day meeting by OPEC+ for further production cuts, in addition to the December cuts, demonstrated further reluctance by Russia. In response to the proposal, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak has stated that Russia requires time to accurately weigh the impact of the Coronavirus on the oil market.
Russia's reluctance to go ahead with production cuts is indicative of a possible divide growing within the Alliance and begs the question if OPEC and Russia can cooperate on oil policies. Experts have already begun speculating if Russia's reluctance is the beginning of the country's break with OPEC's decision making, or if it will simply make a delayed decision much like December. Helima Croft, head of global commodities strategy at RBC Capital Markets, was present in Vienna at the OPEC meeting and speculated on what might occur. "The real question is whether the Russians and the Saudis are on the same page on the necessity for collective action. We have two competing narratives. One, they agreed on a 600,000 barrel cut, and the other that the Russians rejected it," Croft said. Croft seemed to think that Russia would eventually come around.
Russia's delayed reaction and the possibility that a decision is made not to fall in line with OPEC and cut production may have an adverse effect on the oil market, which would go against the best interests of both OPEC and Russia. During trading on Friday, both WTI and Brent were down, the continuation of an ongoing trend as the supply glut and overall market slowdown only deepens. The drop in the two major oil benchmarks has been badly exacerbated by the effects of the Coronavirus outbreak, which has slowed down the Chinese economy and caused one of the largest oil customers in the world to drastically reduce its demand. The drastic reduction in domestic and international travel within China and internationally into and out of the country has caused both exacerbated the global supply glut and caused a sharp drop in demand as flights internationally are cancelled and domestic ground travel within China drops.
- https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/06/russias-reluctance-for-a-production-cut-exposes-possible-crack-in-three-year-old-opec-alliance.html
- https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/07/business/opec-russia-saudi-arabia.html
- https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Oil-Set-For-Fifth-Consecutive-Weekly-Drop-As-Coronavirus-Hits-Demand.html#
- https://www.pws.io//airlines-worldwide-begin-cutting-flights-amid-coronavirus-concerns
- https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/oil-in-for-5thstraight-weekly-loss-as-russia-plays-hardball-with-opec-2079513