This year's Black Friday saw record breaking online sales of $7.4 billion, the highest online sales for a Black Friday and the second highest ever after last year's Cyber Monday. This is in keeping with an overall trend towards online sales in the future of retail generally. According to Adobe Analytics, online shopping on Black Friday increased 17% year-over-year despite the technical issues experienced by a few retailers.
Meanwhile, in-store sales dropped by 6% compared to last year. This is the weakest showing of in-store sales since 2014 according to ShopperTrak.
This year's big winners were the stores that followed the trend toward online shopping: Walmart (NYSE: WMT) and Target (NYSE: TGT). These big-box stores built up their online presence in preparation for the holidays, and both are offering free shipping for the season. On top of their increased sales online, these were two of the only stores to maintain in-store sales as well. Walmart's shares have increased around 25% in the last 12 months, and Target's stocks have shot up nearly 75% since last year.
Toymakers and electronics companies also had a good Black Friday: TVs and Frozen (NYSE: DIS) toys were two of the most popular items across the board. Hasbro, the maker of Frozen II dolls, have been preparing for the holiday season for months by adding air freight services and shifting their warehousing operations to toys based on "Frozen 2" and "Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker".
Lululemon (NASDAQ: LULU) also had good turn-out and sales, according to MKM Partners. The athleisure company focused on strategic marketing and sent a lot of emails in preparation for the shopping season while offering clearance items and special deals on Black Friday itself. Nordstrom (NYSE: JWN) also held its own with special deals and a good assortment of products, according to Cowen analysts.
The list of "losers" of Black Friday includes a lot of stores that have previously done well on the massive shopping day. Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) includes Ulta (NASDAQ: ULTA), Gap (NYSE: GPS), and Old Navy on their list of losers. Shares of Ulta have fallen 21% in the last 12 months and Gap shares are down 40% since last year.
Victoria's Secret also saw thin crowds and lower sales, according to MKM Partners. Victoria's Secret has arguably been on the list of Black Friday winners many times, but its promotions this year weren't enough to tempt shoppers. Pink, on the other hand, had a more successful day. Both brands are owned L Brands (NYSE: LB). Shares of L Brands have dropped 49% since last year. Another holiday staple, Bed Bath and Beyond (NASDAQ: BBBY), had a less than stellar day, according to Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS). However, shares of BBBY have actually risen 13% in the last year.
Those who will likely be most hurt by the shift to online shopping are department stores. The increasing availability of price comparison because of the ease of online shopping is hurting stores who normally depend upon this season to get them "into the black" Macy's (NYSE: M), Kohl's (NYSE: KSS), and Foot Locker (NYSE: FL) stocks are all around 25% down since last year.
The online swing wasn't the only challenge for retailers, however. This year, the number of days between Thanksgiving and Christmas is as low as it can be. There are six fewer days between Thanksgiving and Christmas this year. This means that retailers had to start promotions earlier causing a surge in early shopping.
Cyber Monday is expected to blow by Friday's $7.4 billion. Sales are expected to reach $9.4 billion, a 19% rise from last year. The National Retail Federation estimates nearly 69 million Americans will search the web for deals on Monday. Social media platforms like Instagram, WhatsApp, and Facebook (NASDAQ: FB) are expected to boost sales as deals and promotions are shared online. Target and Walmart are likely to do very well, not to mention the online-shopping giant Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN).