In 2015, Saudi Arabia's record budget deficit came in at $97 billion. This historical deficit was triggered by a massive plunge in the price of crude oil, in summer 2014 (3). Almost two years later, the legacy of this deficit is still relevant. At the end of 2016, the Saudi cabinet projected expected national expenses to reach "$237 billion against revenues of $184 billion" for 2017. On the other hand, the nation's deficit in 2017 is projected to be $79 billion lower than the forecast had been for 2016. Furthermore, revenues for 2017 are expected to be higher than the forecast had been for 2016. Overall, for 2016, spending has been lower than what had been forecasted.
Despite the chaos in its domestic economy, Saudi Arabia remains the world's biggest exporter of oil. Because the Saudi economy heavily comprises of oil exports, the oil price decline has resulted in record budget shortfalls for the country. The National Project Management Office was established to "control capital spending" and ensure that projects are executed as efficiently as possible. In response to the deficit, the government also "froze major building projects, cut cabinet ministers' salaries, and imposed a wage freeze on civil servants". The reports issued for 2017 included a projected deficit of $53 billion, as well as a "lower than expected shortfall" due to the "government's cost-cutting in response to lower oil prices".
The decision to cancel major building projects has resulted in a hired intervention with PricewaterhouseCoopers
Not only does Saudi Arabia seek to adjust its approach to its existing projects, it will also plan to "more than triple the government's non-oil revenues" thereby diversifying its heavily oil-reliant economy and paving the way to a more sustainable future for the nation. Saudi Arabia's National Transformation Plan has cited a desire to "boost non-oil revenue to $141 billion by 2020," thereby creating roughly "450,000 non-government jobs" in the process. The NTP itself will cost roughly 270 billion riyals to implement, and "includes over 500 projects and initiatives as well as performance indicators for ministries and other government agencies". Hence, while the cabinet ministers' salaries are capped for the time being, the government sector itself will be expanding. Furthermore, while many existing projects have been put on hold, the NTP itself provides additional projects and initiatives that are geared towards the current need. Both these acts on the Saudi government's part serve as a check towards neutralizing the effects of government frugality and minimization. This may serve as a preventative measure against the fear of further economic stagnation. The overarching goal for the Saudi government remains to "'enhance the level and quality of services' provided by government and 'achieve a prosperous future and sustainable development".
In spite of the cost of its implementation, the Saudi Minister of State Mohammed Al al-Sheikh claims that the NTP "would have no impact on Saudi budget spending," citing that the private sector can be expected to contribute to payment for NTP initiatives. The NTP falls under the umbrella of the "wider, long-term reform drive known as Vision 2030" announced by Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in April 2016. The goal of Vision 2030 is to "overhaul many aspects of Saudi Arabia's economy and society as the kingdom prepares for a future of shrunken oil revenues and a rising population". It aims to raise the percentage of government debt to gross domestic product to 30 percent, from its current 7.7 percent. Vision 2030 also seeks to introduce value-added tax, "sin-taxes" on "sweet drinks and tobacco" and "fees imposed on the private sector" in effort to generate additional non-oil revenue. There will not be any introduction of income tax for citizens, but there residents - mostly expatriates - will have a tax.
Socio-political changes brought about by the nation's changing economy includes women entering the workforce in large quantities (i.e., in an increase of 48 percent since 2010). The influx of women is most noticeable in the private sector, and constitutes a recent development in the policy movement towards increasing Saudi women's rights, in the past decade. The pro-women's rights policy movement has created "policies that have improved the lives of Saudi women limited by the social and economic constraints imposed by the Wahhabi strain of Sunni Islam". These policy changes, created by the late King Abdullah, have created an ongoing legacy of change for Saudi women.
- 1. http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/3/12/253666/Business/Economy/Saudi-Arabia-projects--bn-deficit-in-.aspx
- 2. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-09/saudi-arabia-said-to-hire-pwc-to-advise-on-20-billion-cost-cuts
- 3. http://english.alarabiya.net/en/business/economy/2016/06/06/Saudi-reform-plan-approved-by-top-govt-economic-council.html
- 4. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-10/saudi-women-are-joining-the-workforce-in-record-numbers