Normally we write on popular topics that may be affecting individual stocks, highlighting the good and the bad of decisions that company's make. This week however we had a special event in the broad markets that needs to be talked about.
In the US markets on Thursday we saw one of the biggest, one day declines in quite some time. The selling pressure was persistent and heavy all day long. There was only one other time that we saw this so far this year and it left many wondering what it all meant for the markets. Is this the end of the bull markets? Would this be the start of the "Sell in May and go away" phenomenon that the media likes to hype? Let's take a non-biased view of Thursday's move.
First of all it was caused by a political news event. Actually it was more of a political news story that may or may not be factual. The story was told in a way that made it look as though our President may have obstructed justice which is an impeachable offense. The markets don't like uncertainty and with this kind of earth shattering news, it certainly created concern among investors.
What many failed to consider was that the decline was not a collapse. It was simply a 1 to 1.6% decline depending on the market. For a market to move like this is totally normal, just not normal now. You see, markets have periods of more volatile swings and periods of quiet. For the longest time the markets have been quietly trending higher. Imagine being on a boat and there are no waves for hours. Then, in the distance a large yacht passes at a high speed. After some time the wake caused by this yacht catches up to you and shakes the boat. Given the length of time that waters were calm, you may feel like the wake from the yacht was larger than normal. However if the seas were rough all day and a yacht passes by you would think nothing of its wake.
Now were not discounting the selling the other day but it does nothing to the overall trend of the markets. The trend is still higher, and outlook for corporate earnings, and the overall economy is still well and in tact. All this move tells you is that the markets are nearing a point where any news that comes out will likely cause more volatility. Just be prepared for the wake and know it is, at least at this point, very normal.