A market correction could be coming, or already started, that will set the S&P 500 Index (NYSE: SPY) 10%, according to Morgan Stanley's (NYSE: MS) chief investment officer. Election uncertainties and the ongoing coronavirus pandemic were cited as factors in the analysis.
Uncertainty and looming market corrections are recurring trends in 2020 amid a turbulent presidential election, a pandemic, successive hurricanes in the south, and a looming recession. That being said, it's not surprising that the S&P 500 may be on course for a 10% correction. The warning bell was run on Monday after Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson published a note warning of the correction.
"With so many uncertainties over the next month, we think another 10% correction from Monday's highs is the most likely outcome in the near term before this bull market can resume," Wilson said.
The potential correction began in September, thwarting a rally that had seen a massive recovery in U.S. markets after months of poor performance due to the coronavirus pandemic. October provided no catalysts for recovery from the correction, given the lack of additional stimulus measures to aid unemployed Americans, President Trump's infection with coronavirus, and an increasingly volatile election. According to Wilson, the correction may not be over, and a second 10% correction is likely to come in the next few months due to rampant uncertainty.
Morgan Stanley wasn't the only firm raising concerns over the market. Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) voiced its concerns of a potential correction due to "overly optimistic" trading, stating that projected growth beyond pre-pandemic levels is unrealistic.
Uncertainty and the threat of future market corrections likely won't fade until after the upcoming election, which has come to dominate analysts' minds across the country. Within the last month, eroding support of incumbent President Donald Trump and the surge in support for Democratic candidate and former Vice President Joe Biden has led to speculation as to what markets may look like after the election, with some analysts going so far as to recommend stocks for a potential Biden victory next month.