Thursday morning, global markets were awash in a sea of red due to Russia's imminent invasion of Ukraine. The only exceptions were oil and gold which have been quite strong in February due to escalating geopolitical tensions and rising inflation.
Thursday's price action was also notable because major averages finally broke below the January 24 low. In total, the S&P 500 (NYSE: SPY) fell by 14% between its high on January 4 and low on January 24. Then, it climbed 8.7% from these lows before topping out around February 9. From there, it fell another 10.4%.
Then, something very unexpected happen as stocks started rallying as Russian troops were entering Ukraine. From Thursday's low to Friday's high, the S&P 500 rallied 6.5%. Some see it as another bear market rally or countertrend move, while others see this as a bottoming type move.
It was a classic 'buy the rumor, sell the news' type reaction as markets declined while uncertainty reigned, and then rallied once there was some resolution. It's also historically similar to the Gulf War which saw stocks fall during the lead-up to the war but then suddenly reverse and spike higher once the actual conflict started.
Of course, the market is making a wager that the conflict will be contained, and it won't have any meaningful impacts on economic growth. If events, data, and/or newsflow start undermining this thesis, then it's possible that stocks could revisit Thursday's lows.
In terms of whether the market bottomed, only time will tell. On the bearish side, some see the U.S. and Europe's escalation of sanctions against Russia as a prelude to Russia taking more aggressive action, while others see Russia's failure to make meaningful progress as a sign that it will be forced to quickly retreat.
On the bullish side, this type of relentless, buying and price action is reminiscent of previous bottoms as is the parallels with 'buy the rumor, sell the news'. Of course, prior to the Ukraine-Russia crisis, the market was experiencing selling pressure due to inflation and a hawkish Federal Reserve, so it will also be interesting to see what the market's reaction will be as the Fed meeting on March 16 comes into focus.
The bulls would counter that this and the Russia-Ukraine crisis has already been discounted. Given the market is oversold, any good news could lead us to get back into bull market mode.