Already, the invasion of Ukraine by Russia has led to upheaval and sky-high prices in the energy sector. Now, economists and government officials are warning that the next crisis will be an increase in world hunger. According to the United Nations, the conflict in Ukraine is expected to cause an additional 7.6 million to 13.1 million people to go hungry through its effect on food supplies, alone.
A significant portion of the world's corn, wheat, and barley is being held up in Russia and Ukraine. Along with these grains, an even greater portion of the world's fertilizer is trapped in Russia and Belarus. The supplies in Ukraine are being physically blocked by invasion forces, but exports from Russia are being barred by international sanctions.
Since the invasion, some fertilizers have increased in price by as much as 40%, and wheat and barley have seen 21% and 33% price increases, respectively. Even before the conflict began, these industries were already struggling with the effects of the pandemic and recent environmental disasters.
"Ukraine has only compounded a catastrophe on top of a catastrophe," the executive director of the United Nations (UN) World Food Program (WFP) David M. Beasley said. "There is no precedent even close to this since World War II."
As the conflict continues, Ukrainian farmers are likely to miss important planting seasons. Up to 30% of Ukrainian farmland is expected to become a warzone.
Fertilizer plants outside of Russia are being forced to cut production despite the shortage due to increased energy prices. As fertilizers become scarce, experts expect harvests to shrink around the globe.
The grain and fertilizer shortages are also likely to compound existing issues. As of February, U.S. grocery prices had already increased by 8.6% year-over-year, the largest jump in four decades. In the five years prior to the pandemic, global hunger had remained mostly steady; however, following the COVID-19 outbreak, the number of food-insecure people increased to at least 720 million, representing an increase of 18%.
Experts say it's too early to tell where the blame for the expected increase in hunger will be placed. It's possible that citizens of the world will place the blame on Russia for its role in the invasion of Ukraine, or they could blame the countries initiating the sanctions that are trapping these goods.
"The United States thinks it has only sanctioned Russia and its banks," Nooruddin Zaker Ahmadi, the director of the Afghan imports company Bashir Navid Complex, told The New York Times. "But the United States has sanctioned the whole world."
Shoppers in countries like the U.S. are probably going to see higher prices at the grocery store, but residents of more vulnerable countries may be left with no grains at all. Until the invasion, Armenia, Mongolia, Kazakhstan, and Eritrea sourced virtually 100% of their wheat from Russia and Ukraine. Now, they'll need to compete with more powerful countries like Turkey and Iran for supplies from other sources.
Severe floods in China, the world's largest supplier and consumer of wheat, have also had a severe impact on world markets. With one-third of the country's 2021 harvests reportedly delayed, China is expected to purchase far more wheat than usual this year.
In Arab and African countries facing the most severe food shortages, experts predict widespread political and social upheaval.
"A lot of people think that this is just going to mean that their bagels are going to become more expensive. And that's absolutely true, but that's not what this is about," longtime analyst for Scotiabank, Ben Isaacson, told NYT. "What actually led to people going into the streets and protesting? It starts from food shortages and from food price inflation."