The Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) rally has paused and the stock is poised to open slightly higher after the nearly 5% rally on Monday. A duo of analysts on Monday questioned the very premise on which the stock advanced.
Unexciting: Tesla investors will not get excited about the August 8 robotaxi unveil, said Future Fund Managing Partner Gary Black. This lack of interest would persist until the company can give assurance that its full-self-driving software will be 99.99% intervention-free and that it is prepared to assume liability for injury or damages to appease regulators, he said.
Black said he expects the Elon Musk-led company to guide 2024 delivery growth down to near zero on its first-quarter earnings call. Currently, the expectations are for 9% year-over-year growth to 1.963 million units, he noted. The fund manager expects the Street to reduce its 2024 adjusted earnings per share estimate from $2.85.
If Tesla signals that the $25K compact car may be delayed past 2026, the 2030 consensus estimates of a 17% compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) in volume and 22% CAGR in earnings per share will be reduced further, Black said. This could pressure Tesla's 2024 price-earnings multiple, which has been relatively stable around 57 times over the past 12 months, he added.
Aspirational Move: Musk's announcement of the August 8 robotaxi unveiling is more "aspirational," similar to the Tesla Semi and Roadster announcements, said Tesla bear and Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi, excerpts of the note shared on X showed.
Tesla Roadster, a four-seater all-electric sports car, which is seen as the successor to the 2008 production model Roadster, is a long time coming. It was first teased in 2014 and is yet to see the light of the day. The Tesla Semi, a heavy-duty electric semi-truck, which was first mentioned in Tesla's 2016 Master Plan, began deliveries only in late 2022.
The analyst also warned of competitive threats. "We only expect competitors' offerings to get better over the next three years," he said, adding that Chinese startup BYD currently offered a $15K sedan - the Qin Plus, that has a 250-mile range and is bigger than the Model 3.
Bernstein has an Underperform rating and a $120 price target for Tesla shares.
In premarket trading on Tuesday, Tesla rose 0.46% at $173.78, according to Benzinga Pro data.