It's hard to imagine a staple more connected to modern life than coffee. It has lodged itself within our culture and has become a ubiquitous beverage for societies worldwide since its introduction in the 15 century. After water and beer, it is the most consumed drink (with over 2 billion cups a day). It is derived from the beans of the coffee plant (Coffea), and as such, it has also bolstered the economies of tropical countries by its valuable status as an export product. All of this importance only deepens the potential fallout if coffee goes extinct. Could this really happen?
The culprit is climate change. According to a report by The Climate Institute, the rising temperatures slowly occurring across the globe will devastate equatorial economies the hardest. These economies--located in countries such as Colombia, Brazil, and Vietnam (all of which are the three largest exporters of coffee)--depend upon the commodity as a key source of revenue. The rising temperatures will result in an imbalanced ecosystem, resulting in a decreased supply of the precious beans. The heat itself is damaging but it will also allow different species of fungi and pests to flourish, particularly ones that feed off the crops of these agricultural communities. The coffee will bear the brunt of the suffering. By 2050, the amount of suitable farmland will be halved; by 2080, it is predicted that wild coffee will have become a luxury of the past. The predicted calamity will throw the livelihood of millions into disarray.
Even if extinction is staved off, the rising temperatures will affect the market in subtler ways. The flavor and aroma of certain species of coffee could change consumer patterns, thus shifting the market into a different state of competition. The two types of coffee that make up the majority of its consumption are Arabica (the most popular) and Robusta (which makes up 30% of consumption worldwide). If predictions are accurate, they will be the most affected compounded by their lack of genetic diversity. This may well cause a rise in lesser know variations of coffee, creating a different market than the one previously dominated by two strands of the product. In the end though, the ability to cultivate coffee will have substantially reduced.
Can this sad future be forestalled? It is unlikely given the progressed state of climate change and the rise in global temperatures. Efforts to reverse the rise are underway and have been gaining ground in politics. Just recently, China and the United States have agreed to sign the Paris Climate Accord. Yet the long-term future looks bleak and provides little hope, especially for those who depend upon and enjoy one of the most popular beverages across the world for centuries.