This holiday season may bring in over $1 trillion in consumer revenue, according to eMarketer. That would be the first time in history that holiday shopping sales would've reached the trillion-dollar threshold.
But based on an analysis by Adobe Inc (NASDAQ: ADBE), total consumer revenue may end up closer to $143 billion, up from the 2018 total of $126 billion. The total revenue from consumer spending so far this season, according to Adobe, is less than a quarter of the way to eMarketer's $1 trillion projection, at $115.5 billion. Summing Black Friday and Cyber Monday, consumers spent $16.8 billion.
If eMarketer is right, and the 2019 holiday season will end up representing over $1 trillion in sales, that means the remaining revenue would have to come from last minute spending before the holidays. In that case, it seems likely that e-commerce could play a large role.
That might be where Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) is positioned to come in for the lead.
Amazon has announced that Amazon Prime members can have eligible items delivered by Christmas Day even if they place those orders on the day before Christmas. "The last day for Prime members to place an order using standard shipping is December 18. For Prime two-day shipping, the last day for orders is December 22. And 10 million items eligible for one-day delivery can be ordered through December 23. Prime members can take advantage of same-day delivery on December 24 in eligible areas on orders of more than $35," according to Market Watch. "Orders must be placed by 9:30 a.m. local time."
While brick-and-mortar retail sales have accounted for over 86% of holiday shopping, e-commerce sales in general continue to grow in popularity, and Amazon has clearly been capitalizing on this momentum. Considering that 82% of U.S. households have an Amazon Prime membership, last minute shopping orders on Amazon could end up totaling quite a bit.
According to a 2019 Deloitte survey of shoppers, 54% of consumers prefer online shopping over the physical experience of going to the store. The NPD Group reports that over 75% of holiday shoppers intend to make an online purchase.
That said, Amazon may lead the online shopping world, but it certainly doesn't represent all of commerce. "The largest online and big-box retailers appear well positioned for the 2019 holiday season," said Andrew Lipsman, principal analyst at eMarketer. "With fast shipping at a premium during the compressed holiday season, retailers like Amazon have an advantage for online deliveries, while those with advanced click-and-collect operations like Walmart, Target, and Best Buy will also get a leg up on the competition."
Once this holiday shopping season concludes, though, even with the reign of brick-and-mortar retailers like Walmart Inc (NYSE: WMT) and Target Corporation (NYSE: TGT), it's estimated that e-commerce may end up representing over 47% of 2019 sales.
Whatever outcome may be ahead, the percentage of e-commerce sales--and the total revenue from the season--will come to light soon enough, $1 trillion or otherwise.