Democratic lawmakers are now progressing with the impeachment process. On September 24, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced the House of Representatives is officially starting a formal impeachment inquiry against President Donald Trump. She cited Trump's alleged abuse of power, obstruction of justice, and betrayal of his oath of office, national security, and the integrity of the country's elections. Six House panels were tasked with investigating the matter, and one lone Republican Congressman came forth in support of the impeachment inquiry. Pelosi finally acquiesced after months of numerous calls from rank-and-file legislators, and thus the House is attempting a historic effort to conduct the nation's third ever impeachment.
The House impeachment inquiry focuses on the Trump-Ukraine scandal, an ongoing controversy. On August 12, an unnamed CIA officer filed a whistleblower complaint claiming that Trump used his office to solicit foreign interference in the upcoming election. Acting Director of National Intelligence Joseph Maguire failed to comply with the law and forward the complaint to Congress. Instead, Maguire testified before the House Intelligence Committee on September 26, saying a higher authority instructed him to withhold the complaint.
The day before, the White House released a summary memo of the July 25 phone call between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, and the memo shows that Trump explicitly asked Zelensky to look into investigating former vice president Joe Biden, his son Hunter, and cybersecurity firm CrowdStrike (NASDAQ: CRWD), as a favor. Various reports also allege that Trump tried to withhold $400 million in military aid to Ukraine in order to apply pressure. American special envoy to Ukraine Kurt Volker resigned on September 27. New reports also claim that Trump administration officials stored records of Trump's digital communications with Ukraine, Russia, and Saudi Arabia in a top-secret private server.
Although the evidence discovered so far is disturbing, impeachment is ultimately not a legal but political question. Democratic lawmakers might offer an airtight legal case that Trump broke multiple laws and violated the Constitution, but Senate Republicans will decide whether to convict and remove Trump.
In the worst case scenario for the Democratic Party, the House will impeach along party lines and send the charges to the Senate for trial, where a two-thirds supermajority needs to vote for removal. Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) will whip the GOP to vote for acquittal or outright refuse to hold a trial. A bulletproof Trump will emerge, spin the impeachment drama as liberal hysteria, promote claims about Biden's corruption, and easily win reelection.
However, in the best case scenario for Democrats, the public impeachment inquiry will crater Trump's approval rating, pressure Senate Republicans to abandon and convict Trump, and ensure a weakened Mike Pence loses to the Democratic presidential nominee in a landslide. Therefore impeachment is a gambit for both parties that have much at risk.