The U.S. airstrike that killed Iran's infamous Quds Force Commander set off a chain reaction that had the world holding its breath on the potential of a disastrous showdown in the Middle East, playing havoc with oil prices and causing the Dow Jones Industrial Average to drop. Despite the de-escalation between the two countries, there is still a great deal of uncertainty if this is truly the end or just the beginning of something far more disastrous.
It's well known that war rarely bodes well for the economy, yet despite touting a strong economy, President Donald Trump didn't seem to consider the economic consequences of an assassination of a high-ranking Iranian general. General Qasem Soleimani, the second most powerful figure in Iran and the leader of Iran's elite Quds Force, was assassinated in a U.S. drone strike ordered by President Trump. The move caused immediate economic consequences for the United States; oil (NYSE: USO) prices jumped, and the Dow Jones (NYSE: DIA) ended up 233.92 points down the day the assassination was announced. Investors were reluctant to take risks and fled to the safety of gold and treasuries. This was, however, just the reaction to Soleimani's death. In the case of an actual war, the economic consequences would have likely been far worse.
Following a missile attack on Iraqi bases housing U.S. troops, the President and Iranian leadership appeared ready to de-escalate, causing oil prices to fall once again and investor confidence to recover. There is, however, no reason to believe that this is the end of the crisis with Iran; there is no reason for investors and consumers to outright panic, but consideration of the potential consequences is tantamount to weathering whatever consequences do arise.
Iran's conventional military has suffered under decades of U.S. sanctions, but its greatest strength lies not in the country's conventional forces, but its militia network. Iran is talented at asymmetric warfare; in fact, this is where the assassinated General Soleimani succeeded most in his career. Soleimani helped establish Iran's network of militia groups across the Middle East, and his demise, which has caused considerable outrage in Iran, is likely also to cause outrage amongst these groups. As such, the greatest threat of retaliation has never been from Iran's army, but from its allied militia forces. This begs the question: if, when, and where will these groups strike? It's hard to predict, given the wide range of military and economic assets in the Middle East. Iran has publicly claimed that its retaliation will be against military targets, but economic targets are ripe for strikes if the September attacks on Saudi Arabian oil facilities are any indication.
The economic consequences for militia attacks on U.S. interests follow patterns, which makes it possible to anticipate the potential consequences of any escalation in the Middle East. It has been stated by Hesbollah that "It is the American military who killed him, and it is they who will pay the price," which paints U.S. military assets as the likely target (though it would be unwise to assume economic assets are immune). Attacks against U.S. military bases could cause similar reactions in the business world that Soleimani's death did: flocking to safe havens such as gold and other currencies, a spike in oil prices, and a spike in defense stocks. Each attack brings the possibility of further U.S. retaliation and the potential for an outright war, which, while unlikely, will still cause worries amongst investors and consumers. While militia attacks by Iranian backed factions have been common in the past, they may increase after Soleimani's death, which could exacerbate the economic effects usually felt by said attacks.
Iran also possesses cyberwarfare capabilities that could potentially threaten the U.S. at home, such as attacks against vital infrastructure. Iranian hackers may also target private interests, seeking to cripple the U.S. economy by stealing information from businesses or launching malware attacks to cripple information systems. It is important to remember that the United States also possesses considerable cyberwarfare capabilities, far surpassing Iran's and that any attacks against the U.S. through the internet may result in a similar response.
The future of the crisis with Iran is hard to predict, but it isn't looking particularly good. The threat posed by Iran's proxy factions is considerable, and the likelihood of future attacks is high. There are, however, patterns that could allow investors and consumers to predict the economic impacts that stem from potential escalations later down the road. Attacks against U.S. interests will carry swift economic consequences, but knowing the patterns seen in recent crises can easily help to prepare for them.