The past few days have been full of events relating to the oil market. Most notably, OPEC attempted to raise prices up to $100 per barrel through production cuts. President Trump blasted OPEC for what he deemed "artificially very high" prices. But the oil market, like any other, is a complex structure with multiple factors determining the final price.
Crude Oil WTI has reached new highs since 2014, breaking the level of $68 per barrel. In the past 12 months alone, the price has ballooned almost 40%. While the OPEC production limits have certainly stimulated positive sentiment in the market, it's worthwhile to consider other factors influencing price.
Almost 10 years after the 2008 recession, we are at the late stage of the economic cycle. According to Jeffrey Currie, Head of Commodities Research at Goldman Sachs, high prices of commodities are an indicator at this stage of the cycle. The strong performance of global economies leads to higher demand for oil, which, in turn, pushes prices higher. In effect, it is causing a noticeable increase in gasoline prices. EIA forecasts an average retail gasoline price on the level of $2.74/gal, compared to $2.41/gal last summer.
Geopolitical tensions among some of the major oil producers have also kept prices high. The Saudi-Yemen conflict escalated last week after an unsuccessful missile attack led by Yemeni forces to retaliate for the Saudi assassination of Saleh Ali al-Sammad, a senior leader of the Yemeni Houthi movement. The WTI prices immediately reacted. The uncertain future of the U.S.-Iranian nuclear deal, which President Trump has repeatedly criticized, and the possibility of reimposing sanctions also looms over the market. If the sanctions were to be reimplemented, the oil supply would decrease, causing a further increase of price level. Elsewhere, a once-major oil producer is tumbling. Halliburton (NYSE: HAL) has just recently withdrawn from its contract with the Venezuelan state oil company. Without oil service companies, Venezuelan market will be unable to produce sufficient amounts to recover its oil-based economy, again contributing to raised prices and limited supply.
Taking this all into consideration, market analysts predict that oil prices will possibly reach $80/bbl. They point out that the increase will be mostly driven by "geopolitics rather than market fundamentals." Major banks set a range of oil prices from $65 to 80/bbl, indicating that any price above $75/bbl would be unsustainable with long-term demand and supply forces.
The oil market has been moving along with the economic cycle, reflecting also geopolitical tensions of major producers. Current uncertainties play along with OPEC, which puts an effort to make oil production more profitable. It is expected that market forces will take over and find an equilibrium over the long term.