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However, JPMorgan analyst Doug Anmuth remains confident in Uber's future, noting that it remains "well positioned in [the] AV ecosystem."
Tesla's Disruption: Rideshare Under Pressure?
Tesla's announcement has created a buzz, especially with expectations of a $25,000 robotaxi. This move threatens to challenge Uber and Lyft's business models directly. The potential rollout of a robotaxi ride-hailing app further positions Tesla as a direct competitor.
Since Tesla's robotaxi announcement in April, Uber's valuation multiples have compressed by around 4x turns, highlighting the pressure on the rideshare giant.
However, Anmuth remains cautious about how quickly Tesla's vision will materialize. He notes, "a robotaxi without LiDAR will be a hurdle w/regulators." Tesla's reliance on its vision-only FSD (Full Self-Driving) technology, and the lack of LiDAR, raises questions about regulatory approval. For Tesla, clearing these obstacles will be crucial for scaling its autonomous fleet, the analyst said.
Uber's Advantage: Strategic Partnerships
Despite Tesla's aggressive push, Uber continues to strengthen its position in the AV landscape through key partnerships. Anmuth reiterates his positive outlook for Uber, maintaining an Overweight rating with a price target of $95 by December 2025. He points out that Uber's collaborations with AV companies such as Waymo
"Uber will play an important role in AV by driving demand and increasing utilization for AV tech providers, while also helping to build out the AV ecosystem through fleet operations," Anmuth said. Uber's partnerships cover mobility, delivery, and freight, and the company has strategically expanded its relationships, including a multi-year deal with Cruise to deploy AVs on its platform starting in 2025.
Tesla's Event: A Relief For Uber?
Anmuth said that while Tesla's ambition is clear, the development of a viable commercial product may take longer than expected, particularly due to regulatory challenges. "We expect the TSLA robotaxi day to be more of a clearing event for Uber and Lyft," he added.
Tesla's vision-only FSD approach could face delays, giving Uber time to further solidify its partnerships and AV strategy. Moreover, Tesla's plan to own and operate its fleet initially-rather than enabling private vehicle owners to contribute to the network-could provide a window of opportunity for Uber to grow its foothold in the AV market.
Long-Term Outlook: Uber's Resilience
Uber continues to project optimism. The company remains confident in its ability to achieve mid-to-high teens growth for gross bookings over the next three years. Uber management, in recent meetings, expressed confidence in their strategy, noting stable mobility trends, durability in delivery, and ongoing expansion of their ad business.
While Tesla's robotaxi might change the game, Anmuth believes Uber will continue to be a key player in the AV revolution.
