Bank of America's chief investment strategist, Michael Hartnett, expects the U.S. economy to shift in 2024 from a 'goldilocks' phase into a 'stagflation' scenario.
This transition is characterized by a slowdown in growth to below 2%, while inflation stubbornly hovers between 3-4%.
Crypto: The Time Of Monsters?
Hartnett also highlighted the record-breaking week for cryptocurrency. About $3.4 billion was funneled into crypto funds. So far this year, there has been a 57% surge in crypto asset prices.
To highlight the significance of these movements, he invokes the words of Marxist theorist and social activist Antonio Gramsci: "The old world is dying, and the new world struggles to be born; now is the time of monsters."
Inflation And Debt Trends: Risks Of Policy Credibility For The Fed?
Hartnett underlined the recent uptick in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation, projecting an increase to 3.6% for the headline CPI and 4% for the core CPI on a year-on-year basis by June.
This comes at a critical moment when the market anticipates a cut in interest rates by the Federal Reserve, suggesting a challenging road ahead for policymakers.
At the same time, the fiscal landscape presents its own challenges, with a 9% year-on-year increase in government spending on military and interest payments in the last five months. This has contributed to a 15% increase in the budget deficit, on track to hit $2.0 trillion annually, and has led to U.S. government debt increasing by $1 trillion every 100 days, Hartnett noted.
The resulting pressure on U.S. Treasury bond yields, now threatening to break out towards 4½%, cannot be ignored.
The Fed's implicit tolerance of higher inflation may serve to ease the burden of U.S. debt, but Hartnett warns this comes at the cost of policy credibility and potentially leads to a weaker currency.
This environment, he argues, is why cryptocurrencies and gold are reaching all-time highs, as investors seek refuge in assets perceived to be safer or more resilient to inflationary pressures and policy uncertainty.
Stagflation's Silver Linings: Investment Opportunities
Hartnett believes the current economic conditions favor investments in gold, commodities, cryptocurrency, cash, and certain sectors of the stock market.
Oil prices have risen by 15% since the beginning of the year, outperforming the 8.2% rise seen in the tech-heavy Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ: QQQ). Hartnett sees this as a clear indication of stagflation, with commodities like oil leading the charge in market performance.
Specifically, he predicts a significant steepening of the yield curve and suggests a contrarian approach to equity investment, favoring resources and defensive sectors.