This holiday season, there are six fewer calendar days between Thanksgiving and Christmas, meaning retailers will be strapped for volume on those days. As a result, holiday retail sales are projected to rise by 3.8% this year.
Because of the shorter calendar, consumers will be engaging in value-driven spending at stores such as Target (NYSE: TGT), Walmart (NYSE: WMT), T.J. Maxx (NYSE: TJX) and Nordstrom Rack (NYSE: JWN). A shorter calendar means more sales, which consumers are going to take advantage of especially given the fact that these are stores that are subject to closures and bankruptcies anyway.
"It's made it that much more important for our sales team and sport people to just be ready for full speed ahead," said Jack Reed Jr., chairman and president of Reed's department store in Tupelo. "With one less weekend in between Thanksgiving and Christmas, we're triple-crossing our fingers. We've had a good year so far, which is encouraging if past is prologue."
Pre financial crisis, bargain retail shopping was seen a somewhat inferior, with consumers flocking to department stores and high-end shopping malls. Now, with the decline of retail and smaller calendar, it seems that value shopping is the way to go.
In fact, "Backstage," Macy's (NYSE: M) off-price business, Backstage, has exceeded expectations in terms of earnings this quarter. Even though its traditional stores are struggling, Backstage has been gaining momentum on discount retail, testifying to its future success during the holidays.
Lesser shopping days also means a lot of the volume will shift online, boosting e-commerce sales and online retail marketing. Most value chains have already reported improvements in their online businesses because of this reason, with many sites doing promo codes and gift giveaways.
"With a week shorter period between Thanksgiving and Christmas this year, deep discounts and faster shipping speeds, we expect an accelerating Online shift this year, driving strong, above-trend online sales during the Cyber 5 weekend," said the Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) research analyst Justin Post in a note to clients on Thursday.