Given the positive developments with the coronavirus, the White House is looking to end the travel ban for vaccinated international tourists on Nov. 8 which was put in place last year by the Trump Administration. The move is expected to be a major catalyst for airliners who are currently at about 20 to 30% below pre-pandemic levels.
The two major reasons for the change in policy are that many parts of the country are approaching an 80% rate in terms of natural immunity and vaccinations and that the delta variant has quickly receded with case counts more than 50% off their highs from early September.
Currently, the ban applies to nearly all non-U.S. citizens. Now, it will be lifted for vaccinated visitors. However, travelers will still need proof of a negative Covid test to enter the U.S. from abroad.
For airlines, the news is a welcome relief as international travel remains one of two segments that have yet to fully recover from pre-pandemic levels. The other is business travel. Both segments also tend to have higher margins and more opportunities to upsell customers.
Stock Price Outlook
The news didn't have much of an impact on airlines as JETS remains about 7% lower in October. Currently, airlines are facing an interesting mix of factors. Their business has improved significantly from the depth of the coronavirus with revenues off by 30% rather than 80%.
However, this momentum has slowed due to the Delta variant starting to impact people's travel plans. But one silver lining is that the situation is improving and companies have already noticed a pickup in bookings.
Still, the economy inching closer to normal has also been bullish for oil prices which have been negatively impacting the airlines' profitability.
Therefore, investors who want to profit from the reopening and 'normalization' trend may want to consider stocks in the travel and tourism industry that are not as connected to energy prices like hotels or restaurants.