One of the annual rituals on Wall Street is analysts revealing their forecasts for the S&P 500
In some years, most of the projections fall into a narrow band. This type of herd-seeking behavior is common in many professions as they won't be punished for a forecast that is wrong but reflects consensus, while they would likely face some repercussions if the forecast is wrong and out of consensus.
An example in another industry of this phenomenon is that "you can never go wrong with IBM
This year, the band is a bit wider than usual possible due to the large variance in terms of forecasts for inflation, rates, and earnings. The lowest forecast is 4,400 from Morgan Stanley
Here are some of the most interesting forecasts:
LPL Financial
Credit Suisse
Goldman Sachs
Morgan Stanley is most bearish at 4,400. It sees some headwinds as being tightening financial conditions and slowing earnings growth which has made the risk/reward for equities less appealing. However, it sees many opportunities for stockpickers given strong economic growth.
BMO is at the high end with its forecast of 5,500 which was increased from 5,300 previously. It sees the Fed remaining accommodative, inflation peaking, supply chain issues improving, and positive earnings growth as bullish catalysts for stocks.