Cryptocurrency, which has been battered over the past month, finally had some good news this week after the G20 summit in Argentina over the weekend. An international group of 20 countries released some better-than-expected statements, bullish news for traders and investors. Bitcoin (BTC) bounced up 10% to retest the $9,000 level, Ether (ETH) bounced from $450 to $590, and Ripple (XRP) rebounded from $.55 to $.70. It seems that BTC, ETH, and XRP are preparing to retest the 200-day exponential moving average after popping up from the bottom of their Bollinger bands.
The first piece of good news is that G20 Financial Stability Board Chair and Bank of England Governor Mark Carney told the nations' finance ministers that crypto doesn't pose a risk to the global financial system. Carney stated that although crypto raise issues about consumer and investor protection, money laundering, and illicit activity, the problems are largely localized within the crypto economy, which has yet to reach even $1 trillion. He suggested that crypto does not pose a systemic risk in the same way that unregulated derivates and exotic financial instruments did in the 2000s.
The second piece of good news is that G20 is moving towards a consensus that crypto is not a currency but an asset. French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire and Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority Governor Ahmed Alkholifey stated that crypto is not currency because it does not serve as a stable medium of exchange, as evidenced by the volatility this year. The position, which the U.S. Internal Revenue Service (IRS) has long taken, means that trades involving crypto would be subject to capital gains tax instead of sales tax. The consensus might also exempt crypto from money transmission laws, though that more closely relates to anti-money laundering and know-your-customer regulations. G20 countries are working to draft a global tax framework for crypto, with classification as assets as a first step.
The last piece of good news is that G20 leaders have set a July deadline for a unified regulatory framework. Argentina Central Bank chair Frederico Sturzenegger stated: "In July we have to offer very concrete, very specific recommendations on, not 'what do we regulate?' but 'what is the data we need?'" U.S. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin expressed concern about crypto use in illegal activities. G20 also pledged to apply the Financial Action Task Force, an intergovernmental organization that fights money laundering and terror finance, to crypto. Though many in the crypto community dislike regulation, such a framework may help prevent a patchwork of confusing, contradictory regulations among different nations. Also, a streamlined framework of regulation can help dispel the notion that crypto is synonymous with financial crime and dark web activity, instead emphasizing its legitimacy and innovation.
As nobody really knows the driving factors behind price action, traders and investors can only assume that the weekend's G20 summit helped propel the price jump. Whether BTC and ETH can break through strong resistance at about the $9,200 and $650 levels is a key signal as to which direction price will go next. Investors should also know that BTC's market capitalization dominance has jumped to 40%, meaning people are reallocating from altcoins to BTC. Finally, the release of regulation recommendations in July will be big news.
The author owns a small amount of BTC and LTC.
- https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/20/bitcoin-bounces-back-above-8800-after-a-very-positive-g-20-cryptocurrency-meeting.html
- https://www.forbes.com/sites/tedknutson/2018/03/19/cryptocurrency-doesnt-pose-a-risk-to-the-financial-system-yet-g20-told/#6fc6d4902d2c
- https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-20/when-is-a-bitcoin-not-a-bitcoin-when-it-s-an-asset-says-g-20
- https://www.coindesk.com/g20-calls-crypto-regulation-recommendations-july/